Much of Florida still may be cleaning up after Hurricane Irma, but the Category 4 storm that smacked the Sunshine State in September is no match for Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 strong economy, says University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith.
麻豆精品 S淭he greatest risk to Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 economic growth is not Irma, but the political tempest raging in Washington, D.C., that could wash away the prospect for economic stimulus needed to jumpstart the U.S. economy, 麻豆精品 S� Snaith says in the quarterly Florida & Metro Forecast from the UCF Institute for Economic Competitiveness, noting the hurricane 麻豆精品 S檚 economic impact will be short lived.
The sectors most impacted by the hurricane in the next two to three months include Leisure & Hospitality (significant short-run job losses will take several months to recoup) and Construction (strong growth will be boosted by repair and rebuilding efforts). Whether President Trump 麻豆精品 S檚 administration can enact its proposed tax plan, health care changes and infrastructure spending in the coming months will have a longer lasting impact on Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 economy than Irma, Snaith said.
The latest Florida & Metro Forecast shows Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, expanding at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent from 2017 to 2020. In addition, Real Gross State Product will expand by 3.1 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2018 before easing to 4.2 percent in 2019 and then 3.4 percent in 2020. Average growth during 2017-2020 is expected to be 0.9 percentage points higher than the Institute for Economic Competitiveness 麻豆精品 S檚 forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period.
Payroll job growth in the state is robust and continues to outpace national job growth, as year-over-year growth is forecasted to average 2.2 percent from 2017-2020.
麻豆精品 S淪trong payroll job creation continues to strengthen Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 labor market, 麻豆精品 S� Snaith said, 麻豆精品 S渁nd this strong job market will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment and attract out-of-state job seekers. 麻豆精品 S� The forecast shows labor force growth in Florida averaging 2.2 percent from 2017-2020, and Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 unemployment rate is expected to level out around 4 percent during the next three years.
The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2017-2020 are Construction (6.5 percent), Professional & Business Services (5.2 percent), Financial (2.4 percent), Leisure & Hospitality (1.7 percent), Education & Health Services (1.7 percent), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.5 percent).
Snaith said housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to completely ease the shortage of single-family housing. The hurricane recovery efforts will further squeeze the market for construction labor. Total housing starts are expected to be 117,161 in 2017, 147,638 in 2018, 154,633 in 2019 and 165,312 in 2020. House-price appreciation will decelerate as supply catches up with demand.
In addition, retail sales will grow at an average pace of more than 6.3 percent during 2017-2020 麻豆精品 S攁fter some short-term, hurricane-related volatility 麻豆精品 S攂oosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 labor market and rising household wealth.