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In what may be the most anticipated recession ever closing in on the U.S. economy, Florida is in a strong position to weather the next 麻豆精品 S渆conomic storm. 麻豆精品 S� That 麻豆精品 S檚 according to UCF economist Sean Snaith in his released this morning.

麻豆精品 S淓conomically speaking, we have our flashlights, batteries, food and water, 麻豆精品 S� Snaith says of Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 economy on the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. 麻豆精品 S淐ompared to what Florida went through in the two previous recessions, the next recession will be more akin to a tropical depression. 麻豆精品 S�

Much of the reason is due to consumers 麻豆精品 S� continued spending on services and experiences 麻豆精品 S攃ritical for Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 tourism sector.

Plus, Snaith, the director of UCF 麻豆精品 S檚 Institute for Economic Forecasting, explains: 麻豆精品 S淔lorida 麻豆精品 S檚 continued population growth, which led the nation last year, and the associated wealth and income it has brought to the state serve as 麻豆精品 S榮andbags 麻豆精品 S� against erosion of economic activity. Record-low unemployment and continued job growth are like our 麻豆精品 S榮torm shutters, 麻豆精品 S� lessening the damage that a recession would do to our labor market. 麻豆精品 S�

Ultimately, Snaith says 麻豆精品 S淔lorida 麻豆精品 S檚 economy is as well prepared to weather a national recession as we could be. 麻豆精品 S�

Snaith also adds that Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 red-hot housing market has cooled.

麻豆精品 S淗igh prices coupled with rising mortgage rates have brought an end to the spike in prices, 麻豆精品 S� he says. 麻豆精品 S淭he possibility of an economic slowdown nationally might lead to some price depreciation, but absolutely nothing like we saw in 2008-2009. 麻豆精品 S�

Debt Ceiling Debacle

Of the frenzied politics over the national debt ceiling, Snaith likens the drama to a bad movie 麻豆精品 S渨e 麻豆精品 S檝e been forced to watch over and over again. There 麻豆精品 S檚 no M. Night Shyamalan twist here. 麻豆精品 S�

The deal, as it stands Thursday morning, will have little economic impact.

麻豆精品 S淪ome of the concessions are headwinds for the economy, but this is not going to have a major shock, 麻豆精品 S� Snaith says. 麻豆精品 S淚t 麻豆精品 S檚 simply not a dramatic reduction in spending and likely only to be temporary. 麻豆精品 S�

More Florida Forecast

Snaith 麻豆精品 S檚 forecast also includes individual outlooks for Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 25 metro areas. Some additional highlights from Snaith 麻豆精品 S檚 latest four-year Florida forecast include:

• From 2023-26, Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 1.2%. Real Gross State Product will decelerate during the economic slowdown as growth will slow to 0.8% in 2024 and in 2025, then accelerate to reach 1.6% by 2026.
• Real personal income growth will average 2.2% during 2023-2026. Following an inflation-driven pullback in 2022, growth will average 2.9% during 2025-2026, hitting 3.0% in 2026. Florida 麻豆精品 S檚 average growth will be 0.2 percentage points higher than the national rate over the 2023-26 four-year span.

• Payroll job growth in Florida will begin to falter with a slowdown in the U.S. economy, but not in every sector. After year-over-year growth of 4.6% in 2021 and job growth of 5.3% in 2022, payroll employment in 2023 will decelerate to 1.0% and contract by 2.4% in 2024 and by 0.5% in 2025. Job growth turns positive and grows by 0.8% in 2026.

• Housing starts will be suppressed by the slowdown and higher mortgage rates. Total starts of 158,349 in 2020 jumped to 193,049 in 2021 and held at 192,213 in 2022 麻豆精品 S� all before higher interest rates and a slowing economy result in a deceleration in starts to 142,183 in 2023 and 137,121 in 2024 before ticking up to 147,146 in 2025 and 149,030 in 2026. Rapid house-price appreciation has been washed away with demand dampened by rising mortgage rates, decreasing affordability and the slowing economy.